Navigating the Crossroads of Complexity and Uncertainty
FM (Friday Morning) Reflection #16
Sometimes, the path forward isn’t a straight line. It feels more like a winding road with unexpected turns and forks. We crave easy solutions, clear roadmaps, and step-by-step guides. When we end up in the ditch, we want clear answers as to why. But often, the answer at that moment is, “I don’t know.”
When this happens, we must immediately follow “I don’t know” with “I’ll find out.” We must question and go deep by asking probing questions, examining underlying assumptions, and exploring different perspectives. This approach helps us learn the patterns and subtle variations that often hide the bigger picture and order of things.
Did the heuristics that we use to “think fast” — our instinctive, rapid decision-making processes based on experience and intuition — lead us astray? Were we navigating through a self-created context of suspended disbelief?
These moments require us to wrestle with uncertainty, to grapple with complex behaviors and stories, and to navigate the “in-between” spaces where the answers aren’t always laid out for us. Engaged, intentional introspection and critical thinking are essential—especially when we confront an unexpected fork in the road or find ourselves facing a dead end or a shocking surprise.
Data + Lived Experience = Knowledge
We can do a lot with good data, especially with the pattern recognition capabilities of AI. However, we must also put ourselves into the wild, observing firsthand and gathering data through lived experience. The best analysts and strategists spend time on the ground, in the store, on the front line, and in the trenches because analysis of the data only solves part of the equation.
Kinesthetic analysis—connecting data with our senses and sensibility—provides critical insights. For example, seeing how customers interact with a product in a store reveals nuances that sales data alone cannot capture.
“Seeing through others’ eyes” and “walking in others’ shoes” connects the dots. It combines our brain’s ability to recognize patterns in data with lived experience. Kinesthetic analysis enmeshes intellectual understanding with physicality, and through it, we gain the ability to viscerally understand and appreciate what is represented by data.
When we engage the pursuit of knowledge in this way, the actions we need to take in a given circumstance often become intuitive. This intuition is strengthened by repeated exposure and experience, by recognizing patterns over time, learning from past successes and mistakes, and gradually developing a deeper understanding of what works and what doesn’t.
This internalization is essential because, in the end, we must decide what to do. We choose for or against a policy or course of action. Or we choose no action, ceding our agency to affect the outcome. And those choices affect real people—you and me, and often, countless others.
Smoke usually means there’s fire, and the first thing to do in that situation is to take protective measures, raise the alarm, and get people to safety. You don’t have to think too much about it. And there’s a kind of calm that comes with just knowing what to do.
Through kinesthetic analysis, we can develop our knowledge into muscles that power behavior, all working in concert to build the body of knowledge and shared wisdom to avoid future pitfalls. And while we can dig ourselves out of a pit or backtrack from a dead end, doing so wastes time and resources—especially when it comes to individual lives, where both are limited and the consequences of a wrong turn can be life-altering.
Strategies for Moving Forward
So, how do we take this idea and apply it to navigate uncertain situations and unmapped landscapes? I believe the answer lies in embracing both the complexity and the uncertainty with a sense of responsibility and intentionality.
First, we start by building connections. We need to engage with colleagues and stakeholders to gather a fully representative range of perspectives before making decisions. We must recognize the impact of our actions, be mindful of unintended consequences, and take ownership of the outcomes.
Generative AI can help us meet the moment too. It’s a powerful tool to help us find patterns, puzzle through problems, and gather and reapply knowledge. However, we must guard against the temptation to rely too heavily on AI and let it do our thinking for us. We also need to broadly develop and promote critical thinking skills and ethics to guide us in the AI world.
We can promote experimentation and embrace the “fail-fast” methodology. This means trying things out, learning from failures, and adapting quickly. The iterative nature of AI development requires us to be agile and responsive, constantly learning and adapting to new advancements.
We can also prioritize and simplify. We often get bogged down in details and lose sight of the bigger picture. By identifying the most important things and focusing on those, we can cut through the noise and make progress.
We can choose to use generative AI to enhance our ability to do our jobs better. By automating tasks, providing insights, and generating creative content, AI can free up our time and mental energy to focus on higher-level thinking and problem-solving.
When we encounter barriers, we should ask, “What would have to be true?” to achieve a desired outcome. This reframing can help us identify the necessary conditions for success and develop strategies to create those conditions.
Let’s embrace the questions. Let’s wrestle with the uncertainty. Let’s use AI to help us navigate the complexity, and use empathy built through lived experience to make wise choices. In time, with our intentionality, the answers will reveal themselves, the path will become clear, and it will be worth the effort.
Photo Bonus
Murals on buildings. Philadelphia, PA. Shot on Lomography LomoChrome Turquoise XR 100-400 Color Negative Film with my Nikon FM2.